BtcInOutAlertInflow from a short-term seller. The entity bought Bitcoin around Nov. 14/15, with bitcoin hitting daytime lows around $15,800, and has now deposited in exchanges with bitcoin at around $16,800, for a potential gain of up to 6 percent
The entity’s potential gain is $2,440,000 in just 2 weeks
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An alternative netflow service indicated an outflow of 52.360 Bitcoin from Binance. Is this real?
NO, it is a MEGA Fake News. Binance performed an internal movement of 30.000 BTC in cold wallet, remaining 51.841 are in a Change Address, so same owner, so still Binance
“Fake News – Person Reading Fake News Article” by mikemacmarketing is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
Are Institutions and Funds Accumulating Bitcoin ?
Is it true what onchain services and people are currently stating, that INSTITUTIONAL and FUNDS are accumulating Bitcoin?
This is a partial analysis, in fact we are only going to deep dive on wallet above 10k BTC (>$200m), since those are the most representative ones for possible accumulation of Funds and Institutionals
NOW we have 101 wallet with balance greater than 10k
Addresses with #BTC balances greater than 10k are 20% of the total circulating. Chart showing distribution of Exchange, Hack & Confiscated, old holders.
Considering wallet with a balance greater than #1k Bitcoin the trend is even declining, so those greater than 10k are key
As can be seen most of the wallet above 10k are now bitcoin in the hands of exchange and only a tiny fraction are Holder Fund-Institutional. Only 4% are effective accumulation of the total above 10k
With this data can we talk about accumulation?
Few hours ago, at 16:09 UTC+1 we notified in our telegram channel BtcInOutAlert an inflow of 6355 Bitcoins to a Binance address. 5380 of those bitcoins are coming from an address of “Poolin” pool.
Based on few tweets, this potentially could indicate that 1 or more miners sent bitcoin to exchanges (potentially to sell them). Is that really the case? This is the pool address history. There are currently over 12,500 Bitcoin present.
Whoever mined in his/her life at least once, will tell you that those tweets are not stating the truth. Let us explain why.
Just few miners around the globe can effectively mine “solo”; for all the other miners (basically the majority), it is nearly mandatory to be part of a pool, in order to be profitable and, at the same time, obviously share the block’s reward.
Owning 1 asic and participating to mining (with pool) will imply to have an account to get the reward credited. For each block mined, the owner of the asic will receive a reward. Every pool has its own rules in order to succesfully run the service (fees, minimum withdrawal).
It is pivotal to understand that every Satoshi mined will be kept in the pool (therefore not 100% owned by the miners) for as long as it will not be sent from a single miner to his/her personal address.
Why are we explaining all that? Because that is the base logic. Based on that, it does not seem reasonable that a single miner with a net worth of 100mio$ in bitcoins will let them “abandoned” in the pool wallet, rather than sending them to his/her own address.
Are you willing to take that risk, if that was your own money? The answer is obviously NO !!
Could that amount be an aggregation of more than one miner, grouping btc and sending them together? That could be absolutely possible, but it would require an outstanding coordination and a difficult cash out once such a quantity enters the market.
So, which are the best scenarios behind that 5k inflow? Below few likely options: – Poolin’s gain, originated from fees, were moved to exchanges – a large OTC transaction, in which the exchange become a mediator between the Pool selling and someone buying – Coinjoin
This is a short answer to a very complex and difficult question to explain in a few words, but the answer is certain. Do miners effectively sent more than 5k bitcoins to exchanges today? The answer is obviously NO !!
As always, the answers rely in the blockchain. Each UTXO corresponds to a block, and each block corresponds to a date. Each date corresponds then to a precise value of Bitcoin.
We have removed all the Exchange and custodial addresses. We have aggregated the values in ranges of $500. This to reduce the size of the chart and give a more representative idea of the purchase ranges.
The first figure evaluates the last 6 months of UTXO, so from 23/November/2021 when Bitcoin was quoted around $58,000
The result is that over 95% of those who have accumulated in the last 6 months are at a loss, at an average accumulation value of $42,293
It doesn’t fare better with last year’s UTXO datasets On 22/May/2021 Bitcoin was quoted as $38,150
Holders from the past 365 days have an average accumulation price of $44,048, higher than holders from the past 6 months
Just over 91% of the dataset is at a loss.
Utxo dataset from 22/May/2020. Bitcoin was quoted at $9,170
The result is that the holders of the last two years, those who have not sold, have an average accumulation price of around $41,001
80.46% is currently at a loss (at today’s price of around $ 30,000)
The average purchasing being at 40k, means therefore that those who bought in the last two years, either sold their bags already making profit, either are holding despite current loss.
LUNA Foundation Guard emptied the Bitcoin wallet by sending everything to Gemini, 28k returned and were invited ALL to Binance.
Right now the LUNA wallet is AGAIN Of empty.
BtcInOutAlert confirm that LUNA Bitcoin wallet is now at zero, and all their Bitcoin have been delivered to Gemini Exchange
1/ Over the past several days, market volatility across crypto assets has been significant.
— LFG | Luna Foundation Guard (@LFG_org) May 9, 2022
The market turmoil is also reflected by the past week's uncertain macro conditions across legacy asset classes.
