Onchain Analysis

Analysis on Binance Outflow

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In the last 48 hours, a significant amount of Bitcoin have flowed out of Binance, large amounts that deserve a closer look.

We can certainly call the outflows “anomalous,” anomalous because the anomalies are multiple.

In our short history (the first BtcInOutAlert data were published in May/June 2021) we have been able to verify several outflows and accumulations, the most important one certainly in July 2021. The accumulations that have occurred to date that have led to lasting rebounds have distinct characteristics:

  • occur from multiple exchanges
  • outflows are often few transactions of large amounts (even above 5000 Btc)
  • occur and continue during the correction (i.e., dutante the descent)

The characteristics of the outflows of the last 48 hours have none of the peculiarities that have occurred in the past, namely:

  • have occurred exclusively from Binance. In the last 60 hours Bitcoin have outflowed almost exclusively from Binance (we are close to 100%). Other exchanges have not had Outflow, in fact Netflow is often positive (more inflow than outflow)
  • transactions are very numerous, and of amounts almost all (97%) less than 200 Btc per transaction
  • occurred days after the end (to date) of the descent/correction, and not during the descent/correction

The type of ouflow should therefore prompt the user to ask questions.

By looking at the Report data, it is possible to view aggregate data, i.e., the numbers displayed are the difference between inflow and outflow of ALL Exchange Spots we track.

The Weekly value starts at midnight Monday. 50,000 Bitcoin have left the exchanges in the past 60 hours. As of 00 UTC Monday (i.e., about 60 hours ago) there were 97,192 Bitcoin in the Binance Withdrawals Wallet (bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h); right now there are 43,373 Bitcoin, for a negative balance of -53,819 Bitcoin.

The totality of outflows present are attributable to Binance, certainly an important anomaly.

Analyzing outgoing transactions from Binance Hot Wallet we see that, again in the last 60 hours, a total of 2040 outgoing transactions occurred , of these 2040 as many as 1970 are outgoing transactions of less than 200 BTC, or almost 97%.

We can therefore say that the totality of outgoing transactions are transactions of less than 200 Bitcoin.

WARNING! 97% of the transactions are less than 200 Bitcoins does not mean that they are individual 200 Bitcoin Outflows, but that the total is 200 Bitcoins, but then each transaction is also distributed to hundreds of different addresses.

As always, we simply pose evidences; the conclusions are up to the user.

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