Tag: Analisys

Categories
Onchain Analysis

A new MicroStrategy Bitcoin address confirmed by on-chain analysis and public data

This post is a follow-up to the previous post : https://btcinoutalert.net/microstrategy-bitcoin-addresses/

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

On-chain data are interpretive, we have said repeatedly, but the enormous amount of data, public, analyzable remains a unique tool in the modern financial world. In a previous post we identified Bitcoin addresses from MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed company that has abandoned dollar reserves to accumulate Bitcoin. In this post we will analyze a new Bitcoin address traceable to MicroStrategy (MSTR).

After the latest analysis and the almost certain identification of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin addresses, some users were talking about “possible selling of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy,” a suspicion that actually had no confirmation. The suspicions came from some outflows, such as the outflow of 14,000 Bitcoins to the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH onchain analysis

The suspicion was that this address was owned by MicroStrategy, but without proof. Since the last release of Form 8-K (a form used to notify investors in U.S. public companies of specific events that might be important to shareholders or to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) we have been able to identify that address as an additional address traceable to MicroStrategy.

The document mentions :

MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, increased its bitcoin holdings by 2,500 bitcoins,
from approximately 130,000 bitcoins as of October 31, 2022, to approximately 132,500 bitcoins as of December 27, 2022.

Source : https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/financial-document-archive/form-8-k-12-28-2022.pdf

Thus, we know that MicroStrategy, as of December 27, 2022, holds about 132,500 Bitcoins.

If, in addition to the addresses we have already identified, we also add up the Bitcoins of the suspect address :

AddressBalance as of December 27, 2022
1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH13,816 Bitcoin
1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd124,348 Bitcoin
1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ0 Bitcoin
1FzWLkAahHooV3kzTgyx6qsswXJ6sCXkSR0 Bitcoin
Total138,164 Bitcoin

We can therefore confirm that the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is an address traceable to MicroStrategy.

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is from MicroStrategy. Onchain analysis

Onchain data embedded with public data has enormous potential for analysis, and this is a classic example.

BtcInOutAlert

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Big Inflows and outflows OKX (OKEX) movement by Proof of Reserves (PoR)

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

On December 23, 2022 large Bitcoin movements occurred from the addresses of OKX, one of the largest exchanges. The movements were anticipated by a tweet alert :

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

Address movements are part of an OKX transparency effort to show Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) on its website.

The Proof of Reserves is the second one, and it adds new features. Users can now view the independently the results of on the OKX website through open source tools available on the OKX GitHub profile at the following address:

https://github.com/okx/proof-of-reserves/

OKX has published over 20,000 addresses, and it seems they plan to continue to reuse addresses so that anyone can perform a stand-alone, independent audit, plus OKX promises to run reserve tests on a monthly basis.

OKX Inflow Outflow may continue in the coming hours.

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Analysis on Binance Outflow

Movements are still taking place, so onchain analysis is done with updated data until the post is published. Follow the live data (find the menu at the bottom of the page) to stay updated in real time.

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

In the last 48 hours, a significant amount of Bitcoin have flowed out of Binance, large amounts that deserve a closer look.

We can certainly call the outflows “anomalous,” anomalous because the anomalies are multiple.

In our short history (the first BtcInOutAlert data were published in May/June 2021) we have been able to verify several outflows and accumulations, the most important one certainly in July 2021. The accumulations that have occurred to date that have led to lasting rebounds have distinct characteristics:

  • occur from multiple exchanges
  • outflows are often few transactions of large amounts (even above 5000 Btc)
  • occur and continue during the correction (i.e., dutante the descent)

The characteristics of the outflows of the last 48 hours have none of the peculiarities that have occurred in the past, namely:

  • have occurred exclusively from Binance. In the last 60 hours Bitcoin have outflowed almost exclusively from Binance (we are close to 100%). Other exchanges have not had Outflow, in fact Netflow is often positive (more inflow than outflow)
  • transactions are very numerous, and of amounts almost all (97%) less than 200 Btc per transaction
  • occurred days after the end (to date) of the descent/correction, and not during the descent/correction

The type of ouflow should therefore prompt the user to ask questions.

By looking at the Report data, it is possible to view aggregate data, i.e., the numbers displayed are the difference between inflow and outflow of ALL Exchange Spots we track.

The Weekly value starts at midnight Monday. 50,000 Bitcoin have left the exchanges in the past 60 hours. As of 00 UTC Monday (i.e., about 60 hours ago) there were 97,192 Bitcoin in the Binance Withdrawals Wallet (bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h); right now there are 43,373 Bitcoin, for a negative balance of -53,819 Bitcoin.

The totality of outflows present are attributable to Binance, certainly an important anomaly.

Analyzing outgoing transactions from Binance Hot Wallet we see that, again in the last 60 hours, a total of 2040 outgoing transactions occurred , of these 2040 as many as 1970 are outgoing transactions of less than 200 BTC, or almost 97%.

We can therefore say that the totality of outgoing transactions are transactions of less than 200 Bitcoin.

WARNING! 97% of the transactions are less than 200 Bitcoins does not mean that they are individual 200 Bitcoin Outflows, but that the total is 200 Bitcoins, but then each transaction is also distributed to hundreds of different addresses.

As always, we simply pose evidences; the conclusions are up to the user.

See our Live data using the menu below.

BtcInOutAlert

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis Satoshi

OneSignature is Not Satoshi

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]


As explained in the previous post (which you can read here if you haven’t), a mysterious user named OneSignature appeared on the BitcoinTalk forum, a historic forum where there are numerous Satoshi posts, signing an address with bitcoin mined in 2009 and an outgoing transaction in 2011. The address (1NChfewU45oy7Dgn51HwkBFSixaTnyakfj) has block mining TX 1018. The signature is the most dated/oldest ever to appear on a bitcoin address.

The (few) certainties

Let us start with the few certainties, namely the signature and its verification.

We have noticed some unnecessary discussions about the supposed invalidity of the signature, and let’s settle that right away; the signature is authentic. We used Electrum connected to a Bitcoin full node, but you could use hundreds of other different methods; the signature is certainly authentic. After making sure that the signature is authentic, let’s take a closer look at the blockchain to understand more about it.

The analysis of blockchain

The address signed by OneSignature contained 50 Bitcoin that are aggregated to the address 1LseHYUYUXkL4Jdd4YTTXvWNqDceTdQXrt along with another 1,950 BTC, this occurs in 2011.

From signed address to aggregation

The Bitstamp inflow

Next, some transactions occur that deserve attention for analysis. Some Bitcoin are deposited at the address 17jz6XcXP2LPqS8gYmT2pkNJocUDzbpQuM traceable to a Bitstamp.net deposit address. On the same deposit address it is also possible to reconstruct most of the additional addresses owned by the same owner.

A total of 9,106 Bitcoins are deposited at the Bitstamp address, all transactions traceable to the same owner, and deposit activity occurs through December 22, 2014. Almost all of the Bitcoin are mining rewards.

The inflow on MtGox

Another interesting transaction is the one that occurred to the address 1JWgqCduauH2dBQZ3WE6TN5e2pFtRMGHNr traceable to MtGox

The Silkroad address connection?

From MtGox further transactions to the address 1QY4sSvRw2jS6QPn7GjYLaWwW73u8MLsb traceable to SilkRoadMarketplace, the famous Darknet marketplace for which Ross Ulbricht is now serving a life sentence.

Below is a complete representation of the flow.

We can exclude that OneSignature is Satoshi

Satoshi is a careful person, manic about privacy. The chances that OneSignature could be Satoshi in my opinion are ZERO. Satoshi would never, with such superficiality, leave such obvious traces, especially to two CEX exchanges that can easily identify his identity.
It is not in his philosophy and it is not in his way of acting, always attentive to every single detail since the early days and he would never have committed such trivialities.

But we continue to explore further

Patoshi signature

If all these clues are not enough, further verification clues may come from independent researcher Sergio Demian Lerner. It has carried out an in-depth analysis on the possible blocks extracted from Satoshi, they are vulgarly called Patoshi Block.

Explained in a very simplified way, Satoshi most likely used a different mining software than the one initially distributed, so it was possible through traces left behind in block mining to reconstruct what are most likely blocks mined by Satoshi.

If we go to analyze block 1018, which is the one precisely signed by OneSignature, it does not show up among the possible Satoshi extracted blocks:

Screenshot Source : http://satoshiblocks.info/

Conclusion. Where did that signature come from and why? The possible idea of NFTs

One of the most likely explanations is that someone may have sniffed out a business opportunity: converting old BTC addresses to NFTs and then selling them. Such old types of addresses may acquire archaeological value. You may not even need to own the private key to own the NFT. You can learn more about the idea in this post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5425241

An idea that I think is difficult to develop, but which confirms for us a doubt:

OneSignature is not Satoshi

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Beginner guides Onchain Analysis

What is Netflow

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

Intro

Onchain data are becoming increasingly important in the Bitcoin world, this is because they are useful in interpreting and often anticipating Bitcoin price movements. We have noticed how there is an openness even from major Exchanges in publishing onchain data (Kraken for example publishes excellent analysis, find the link at the bottom of the page of their analysis).

There are many useful onchain indicators, but today we will focus on Netflow, which is the most natural movement of bitcoin to exchanges, and bitcoin in exchanges are the ones that generate the price for an ordinary person.

What is Netflow

Netflow is an onchain analysis tool that compares price trends with the trend of Bitcoin volumes inflow and outflow of exchanges to study the likelihood of a trend reversal. 

1 year of Netflow. Source : BtcInOutAlert.net

Its purpose is also to help traders understand whether a Bitcoin is currently accumulating or distributing. Although it was originally designed for use on Bitcoin, market logic has meant that it finds wide applications in the world of shitcoins, which we will not cover because they are totally irrelevant (the shitcoins)

Thus, Bitcoin accumulation and distribution allows you to interpret the trend and can be used both when a trend is up, to determine the likelihood that it will advance, and when a trend has already clearly manifested itself and you are trying to figure out whether a reversal is imminent or not.

Netflow as an indicator of accumulation and distribution

Netflow is a tool for measuring in Bitcoin the volume in and out of the Exchange, which assesses the cumulative inflow and outflow of Bitcoin from a given Exchange; simply put, it measures the price and volume of Bitcoin to determine whether it is accumulating or distributing.

The indicator also provides information about the strength of a trend. For example, when the price of the asset is rising, but the Netflow indicator is negative this may indicate that the volume of accumulation, and therefore buying, is not strong enough to support the rising price. These circumstances could mean that a price decline is imminent in the short term.

How to use Netflow as an indicator of accumulation and distribution

If the market price is in an upward trend, the indicator will be rising, reflecting buying pressure, while in a downward trend, the indicator will be falling, reflecting selling pressure; if this is not the case, we are in a divergence.

One of the great advantages of this indicator is precisely the issue of divergence. In fact, if the market price is in one direction and the indicator is in the opposite direction, it is usually a very interesting warning that the market may reverse its trend.

Thus, the most reliable signals provided by Netflow, accumulation or distribution, are divergences.

The buy signal will appear with a positive divergence, that is, when the market price is falling but the Netflow is rising. In this case, the analyst should be alert because there is a good chance that the price will soon turn upward.

A bearish divergence sell signal would occur when the market price is rising but the Netflow is falling. In this case, the technical analyst should be alert because there is a good chance that the price will soon turn downward.

Strategy with the indicators of accumulation and distribution

As you now know, the Netflow therefore creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals are based on divergence and its confirmation.

Although the use of Netflow alone is feasible, it is more advantageous to add other indicators such as Data Volume, Address Distribution, Dormant Address Activity, Long Term and Short Term Holder. They provide additional data and useful ranges to be used to highlight extreme conditions for which Netflow was not designed, although they do so differently.

Conclusions

Netflow is an extremely useful onchain indicator for measuring the cumulative capital flow for a financial asset such as a currency pair (BTC/USD). It is based on both price and volume and can be used as a tool to monitor trend.

Divergences between this indicator and the asset price are usually fairly reliable signals of trend change; they are data that the Blockchain provides us with, public, which employed in conjunction with additional analysis tools can confirm the signals.

External insights

  1. Kraken Onchain Analysis

BtcInOutAlert

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

What happens to the Binance BTC-B Bitcoin wallet?

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

As is always the case, large amounts of bitcoin on the chain create extreme excitement, euphoria or panic, even more extreme excitement when the movement occurs from one of the addresses owned by larger exchanges: Binance.

Big movements from Binance Wallet

During the early hours of November 18, 2022 , from the address traceable to Binance dedicated to the BTC-B peg 3LYJfcfHPXYJreMsASk2jkn69LWEYKzexb various movements to and from, through multiple addresses all traceable to Binance are reported.

It is important to know up front that all movements are zero-sum, meaning that the same amount of Bitcoin is in Binance wallets both before and after the movements.

The certainty that the wallet is traceable to Binance and dedicated to the BTC-B peg comes directly from the owner of the address according to several sources :

What is BTC-B and how does it work?

According to Binance’s own definition, BTC-B is :

Bitcoin BEP2 (BTCB) is a token on Binance Chain issued by Binance, where the price is pegged to BTC at a rate of 1 BTCB = 1 BTC. BTCB is 100% backed by the same amount of BTC in our public reserve address below.

Binance Press Release

and again :

The main benefit of offering crypto-pegged tokens is that, obviously, this makes available to Binance DEX traders the many coins that have their own blockchains and aren’t native on BNB Chain.

Binance Press Release

Simply put, Binance stores Bitcoin reserves in a dedicated address, verifiable address to ensure liquidity on its chain.

Bitcoin Binance reserves track liquidity. The more liquidity on the Binance chain, the more Bitcoin reserves are held in reserves.

Will the Bitcoin removed from liquidity be SOLD at market?

This question will not be answered, but you will give yourself an answer, and the whole thing is based on logic. To give you an answer you first need to understand how liquidity works on the Binance chain, and again we quote Binance’s words :

This provides an easy way for anyone to convert from the pegged token back into the native coin on Binance.com. If this buy order is filled, a new order will be placed while an equal amount of funds will be deposited from the reserve address into Binance.com. The sum of the buy order and the funds on the published reserve address will be bigger than the total supply of the pegged token, ensuring there is always 100% backing.

If those Bitcoin were subtracted from the reserves of the Binance BTC-B address this is a consequence of liquidity leaving the Binance chain, not the other way around. If there is less liquidity on the Binance chain less Bitcoin are needed as collateral, not the other way around.

Is this liquidity outflow bullish or bearish?

This Bitcoin liquidity coming out of the BTC-B reserve addresses are neither bearish nor bullish, but reflect what on the Binance chain HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.

The fear instilled by some people is a very sad story!

BtcInOutAlert, 18 November 2022

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Is it a Bitcoin accumulation or is it a Bank Run ?

Is it a real BTC accumulation or is it a rush to withdraw the money ?

November 13, 2022 More than 58,000 Bitcoin have gone out in the past 7 days, one of the weeks with the highest number of bitcoin gone out. Outflows not seen in many months.

Bitcoin Netflow Report – 13/November/2022 09:27 UTC

The 4H rolling graph shows an exponential increase in outflows as soon as the rush to exit FTX began.

Bitcoin Netflow H4 Rolling – 13/November/2022 09:01 UTC

A great help comes to us from Onchain data in its completeness Historically, addresses over 100 and 1K Bitcoin are from large funds and Big investors.

Both have been declining for the last 30 days, and in the last week there has been no increase

Addresses greater than 100 Bitcoin
Addresses greater than 1k Bitcoin

In opposite, very small portfolios are in vertical increase Use your head, make your own assessments, use our free and independent data.

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data
Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Outflow 52360 Bitcoin from Binance?

An alternative netflow service indicated an outflow of 52.360 Bitcoin from Binance. Is this real?

NO, it is a MEGA Fake News. Binance performed an internal movement of 30.000 BTC in cold wallet, remaining 51.841 are in a Change Address, so same owner, so still Binance

BtcInOutAlert in Live on the Bitcoin netflow movement
BtcInOutAlert regularly reported IN REAL TIME what was happening.
TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d - Movement
TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d

“Fake News – Person Reading Fake News Article” by mikemacmarketing is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Accumulation in progress?

Distribution of addresses greater than 10k Bitcoin

Analysis on addresses over 10k Bitcoin

Are Institutions and Funds Accumulating Bitcoin ?

Is it true what onchain services and people are currently stating, that INSTITUTIONAL and FUNDS are accumulating Bitcoin?

This is a partial analysis, in fact we are only going to deep dive on wallet above 10k BTC (>$200m), since those are the most representative ones for possible accumulation of Funds and Institutionals

NOW we have 101 wallet with balance greater than 10k

Addresses greater than 10k bitcoin

Addresses with #BTC balances greater than 10k are 20% of the total circulating. Chart showing distribution of Exchange, Hack & Confiscated, old holders.

Considering wallet with a balance greater than #1k Bitcoin the trend is even declining, so those greater than 10k are key

As can be seen most of the wallet above 10k are now bitcoin in the hands of exchange and only a tiny fraction are Holder Fund-Institutional. Only 4% are effective accumulation of the total above 10k

With this data can we talk about accumulation?

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

What is the Average Price of the holder?

As always, the answers rely in the blockchain. Each UTXO corresponds to a block, and each block corresponds to a date. Each date corresponds then to a precise value of Bitcoin.

We have removed all the Exchange and custodial addresses. We have aggregated the values in ranges of $500. This to reduce the size of the chart and give a more representative idea of the purchase ranges.

Last 6 months

The first figure evaluates the last 6 months of UTXO, so from 23/November/2021 when Bitcoin was quoted around $58,000

The result is that over 95% of those who have accumulated in the last 6 months are at a loss, at an average accumulation value of $42,293

Last year

It doesn’t fare better with last year’s UTXO datasets On 22/May/2021 Bitcoin was quoted as $38,150
Holders from the past 365 days have an average accumulation price of $44,048, higher than holders from the past 6 months

Just over 91% of the dataset is at a loss.

Last 2 years

Utxo dataset from 22/May/2020. Bitcoin was quoted at $9,170

The result is that the holders of the last two years, those who have not sold, have an average accumulation price of around $41,001

80.46% is currently at a loss (at today’s price of around $ 30,000)

The average purchasing being at 40k, means therefore that those who bought in the last two years, either sold their bags already making profit, either are holding despite current loss.