Categories
Onchain Analysis Other

Bitcoin Address non-Zero in ATH: why it’s not an accumulation

The past 3 weeks have witnessed a major event in address distribution, a mighty rise to ATH of non-Zero Bitcoin addresses, or the summation of all Bitcoin addresses containing at least 1 satoshi.

BTC Address non-ZERO

In the image depicted above, it can be seen that the last three weeks have seen a parabolic ascent of this metric, a parabolic ascent that is not present in any other metric regarding the distribution of addresses; in fact, for the most part they are declining or at best stable.

Numerous Bitcoin newspaper, Twitter and Telegram channels have portrayed this event as positive, as a sign of important Bitcoin accumulation by Retail investors, but is this really the case or can it be explained differently?

The Block Size, what happens?

Block Size Bitcoin
Source : https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/block-sizes-weights

The above image shows the total block size of bitcoin. As is easy to see, a disproportion to the historical graph is evident. The Block Size has been growing steadily as transactions have increased, but for the past few days it has had an abrupt increase, doubling from the historical. Once again, why this anomaly ? How is it possible to explain everything ?

Ordinals’ responsibilities

Ordinals preview

As of January 21, 2023, the race for Ordinals, i.e., digital artifacts, has begun. Ordinals are created by enrolling sats, and to them are included content, such as an image, an HTML url, text, in order to keep these artifacts one must keep the transaction (UTXO), i.e., an unspent transaction.

Btc Address non-Zero with divisor

If we apply a separator exactly on the date when the publication of Ordinals began here is where this anomalous movement of the distribution of non-Zero addresses is explained.

As always, onchain data tells objective data, while analytics is essential to really understand what is happening.

How will Ordinals affect Bitcoin ?

Mempool stats

The past few hours have seen a major increase in transaction verification wait times, and an increase in transaction costs.

How sustainable is all this? What can we expect in the long term? We will explore this in more detail in the near future

Categories
Onchain Analysis

A new MicroStrategy Bitcoin address confirmed by on-chain analysis and public data

This post is a follow-up to the previous post : https://btcinoutalert.net/microstrategy-bitcoin-addresses/

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

On-chain data are interpretive, we have said repeatedly, but the enormous amount of data, public, analyzable remains a unique tool in the modern financial world. In a previous post we identified Bitcoin addresses from MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed company that has abandoned dollar reserves to accumulate Bitcoin. In this post we will analyze a new Bitcoin address traceable to MicroStrategy (MSTR).

After the latest analysis and the almost certain identification of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin addresses, some users were talking about “possible selling of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy,” a suspicion that actually had no confirmation. The suspicions came from some outflows, such as the outflow of 14,000 Bitcoins to the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH onchain analysis

The suspicion was that this address was owned by MicroStrategy, but without proof. Since the last release of Form 8-K (a form used to notify investors in U.S. public companies of specific events that might be important to shareholders or to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) we have been able to identify that address as an additional address traceable to MicroStrategy.

The document mentions :

MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, increased its bitcoin holdings by 2,500 bitcoins,
from approximately 130,000 bitcoins as of October 31, 2022, to approximately 132,500 bitcoins as of December 27, 2022.

Source : https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/financial-document-archive/form-8-k-12-28-2022.pdf

Thus, we know that MicroStrategy, as of December 27, 2022, holds about 132,500 Bitcoins.

If, in addition to the addresses we have already identified, we also add up the Bitcoins of the suspect address :

AddressBalance as of December 27, 2022
1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH13,816 Bitcoin
1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd124,348 Bitcoin
1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ0 Bitcoin
1FzWLkAahHooV3kzTgyx6qsswXJ6sCXkSR0 Bitcoin
Total138,164 Bitcoin

We can therefore confirm that the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is an address traceable to MicroStrategy.

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is from MicroStrategy. Onchain analysis

Onchain data embedded with public data has enormous potential for analysis, and this is a classic example.

BtcInOutAlert


Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data

Categories
Onchain Analysis

What happens to the Binance BTC-B Bitcoin wallet?

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotation”]

[adinserter name=”CoinAdsenseRotationMobile”]

As is always the case, large amounts of bitcoin on the chain create extreme excitement, euphoria or panic, even more extreme excitement when the movement occurs from one of the addresses owned by larger exchanges: Binance.

Big movements from Binance Wallet

During the early hours of November 18, 2022 , from the address traceable to Binance dedicated to the BTC-B peg 3LYJfcfHPXYJreMsASk2jkn69LWEYKzexb various movements to and from, through multiple addresses all traceable to Binance are reported.

It is important to know up front that all movements are zero-sum, meaning that the same amount of Bitcoin is in Binance wallets both before and after the movements.

The certainty that the wallet is traceable to Binance and dedicated to the BTC-B peg comes directly from the owner of the address according to several sources :

What is BTC-B and how does it work?

According to Binance’s own definition, BTC-B is :

Bitcoin BEP2 (BTCB) is a token on Binance Chain issued by Binance, where the price is pegged to BTC at a rate of 1 BTCB = 1 BTC. BTCB is 100% backed by the same amount of BTC in our public reserve address below.

Binance Press Release

and again :

The main benefit of offering crypto-pegged tokens is that, obviously, this makes available to Binance DEX traders the many coins that have their own blockchains and aren’t native on BNB Chain.

Binance Press Release

Simply put, Binance stores Bitcoin reserves in a dedicated address, verifiable address to ensure liquidity on its chain.

Bitcoin Binance reserves track liquidity. The more liquidity on the Binance chain, the more Bitcoin reserves are held in reserves.

Will the Bitcoin removed from liquidity be SOLD at market?

This question will not be answered, but you will give yourself an answer, and the whole thing is based on logic. To give you an answer you first need to understand how liquidity works on the Binance chain, and again we quote Binance’s words :

This provides an easy way for anyone to convert from the pegged token back into the native coin on Binance.com. If this buy order is filled, a new order will be placed while an equal amount of funds will be deposited from the reserve address into Binance.com. The sum of the buy order and the funds on the published reserve address will be bigger than the total supply of the pegged token, ensuring there is always 100% backing.

If those Bitcoin were subtracted from the reserves of the Binance BTC-B address this is a consequence of liquidity leaving the Binance chain, not the other way around. If there is less liquidity on the Binance chain less Bitcoin are needed as collateral, not the other way around.

Is this liquidity outflow bullish or bearish?

This Bitcoin liquidity coming out of the BTC-B reserve addresses are neither bearish nor bullish, but reflect what on the Binance chain HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.

The fear instilled by some people is a very sad story!

BtcInOutAlert, 18 November 2022

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Is it a Bitcoin accumulation or is it a Bank Run ?

Is it a real BTC accumulation or is it a rush to withdraw the money ?

November 13, 2022 More than 58,000 Bitcoin have gone out in the past 7 days, one of the weeks with the highest number of bitcoin gone out. Outflows not seen in many months.

Bitcoin Netflow Report – 13/November/2022 09:27 UTC

The 4H rolling graph shows an exponential increase in outflows as soon as the rush to exit FTX began.

Bitcoin Netflow H4 Rolling – 13/November/2022 09:01 UTC

A great help comes to us from Onchain data in its completeness Historically, addresses over 100 and 1K Bitcoin are from large funds and Big investors.

Both have been declining for the last 30 days, and in the last week there has been no increase

Addresses greater than 100 Bitcoin
Addresses greater than 1k Bitcoin

In opposite, very small portfolios are in vertical increase Use your head, make your own assessments, use our free and independent data.

Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Service info

Long & Short Term Holder Supply

We are proud to share that BtcInOutAlert is constantly improving.

We developed a new Bitcoin Onchain metric, to further widen our toolkit of independent and free from manipulative purposes data.

The metric is based on UTXO Data, providing useful insights for Long-Term goals

Metrics available on : https://btcinoutalert.net/lt-and-st-holder-supply/


Other Charts

Netflow

Address Distribution

Volume

Other Data

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Outflow 52360 Bitcoin from Binance?

An alternative netflow service indicated an outflow of 52.360 Bitcoin from Binance. Is this real?

NO, it is a MEGA Fake News. Binance performed an internal movement of 30.000 BTC in cold wallet, remaining 51.841 are in a Change Address, so same owner, so still Binance

BtcInOutAlert in Live on the Bitcoin netflow movement
BtcInOutAlert regularly reported IN REAL TIME what was happening.
TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d - Movement
TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d

Fake News – Person Reading Fake News Article” by mikemacmarketing is licensed under CC BY 2.0.

Latest Insights and Info

Categories
Onchain Analysis

Accumulation in progress?

Analysis on addresses over 10k Bitcoin

Are Institutions and Funds Accumulating Bitcoin ?

Is it true what onchain services and people are currently stating, that INSTITUTIONAL and FUNDS are accumulating Bitcoin?

This is a partial analysis, in fact we are only going to deep dive on wallet above 10k BTC (>$200m), since those are the most representative ones for possible accumulation of Funds and Institutionals

NOW we have 101 wallet with balance greater than 10k

Addresses greater than 10k bitcoin

Addresses with #BTC balances greater than 10k are 20% of the total circulating. Chart showing distribution of Exchange, Hack & Confiscated, old holders.

Considering wallet with a balance greater than #1k Bitcoin the trend is even declining, so those greater than 10k are key

As can be seen most of the wallet above 10k are now bitcoin in the hands of exchange and only a tiny fraction are Holder Fund-Institutional. Only 4% are effective accumulation of the total above 10k

With this data can we talk about accumulation?

Latest Insights and Info