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Bitcoin Address non-Zero in ATH: why it’s not an accumulation

The past 3 weeks have witnessed a major event in address distribution, a mighty rise to ATH of non-Zero Bitcoin addresses, or the summation of all Bitcoin addresses containing at least 1 satoshi.

BTC Address non-ZERO

In the image depicted above, it can be seen that the last three weeks have seen a parabolic ascent of this metric, a parabolic ascent that is not present in any other metric regarding the distribution of addresses; in fact, for the most part they are declining or at best stable.

Numerous Bitcoin newspaper, Twitter and Telegram channels have portrayed this event as positive, as a sign of important Bitcoin accumulation by Retail investors, but is this really the case or can it be explained differently?

The Block Size, what happens?

Block Size Bitcoin
Source : https://mempool.space/graphs/mining/block-sizes-weights

The above image shows the total block size of bitcoin. As is easy to see, a disproportion to the historical graph is evident. The Block Size has been growing steadily as transactions have increased, but for the past few days it has had an abrupt increase, doubling from the historical. Once again, why this anomaly ? How is it possible to explain everything ?

Ordinals’ responsibilities

Ordinals preview

As of January 21, 2023, the race for Ordinals, i.e., digital artifacts, has begun. Ordinals are created by enrolling sats, and to them are included content, such as an image, an HTML url, text, in order to keep these artifacts one must keep the transaction (UTXO), i.e., an unspent transaction.

Btc Address non-Zero with divisor

If we apply a separator exactly on the date when the publication of Ordinals began here is where this anomalous movement of the distribution of non-Zero addresses is explained.

As always, onchain data tells objective data, while analytics is essential to really understand what is happening.

How will Ordinals affect Bitcoin ?

Mempool stats

The past few hours have seen a major increase in transaction verification wait times, and an increase in transaction costs.

How sustainable is all this? What can we expect in the long term? We will explore this in more detail in the near future

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Onchain Analysis

A new MicroStrategy Bitcoin address confirmed by on-chain analysis and public data

This post is a follow-up to the previous post : https://btcinoutalert.net/microstrategy-bitcoin-addresses/

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On-chain data are interpretive, we have said repeatedly, but the enormous amount of data, public, analyzable remains a unique tool in the modern financial world. In a previous post we identified Bitcoin addresses from MicroStrategy, a Nasdaq-listed company that has abandoned dollar reserves to accumulate Bitcoin. In this post we will analyze a new Bitcoin address traceable to MicroStrategy (MSTR).

After the latest analysis and the almost certain identification of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin addresses, some users were talking about “possible selling of Bitcoin by MicroStrategy,” a suspicion that actually had no confirmation. The suspicions came from some outflows, such as the outflow of 14,000 Bitcoins to the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH onchain analysis

The suspicion was that this address was owned by MicroStrategy, but without proof. Since the last release of Form 8-K (a form used to notify investors in U.S. public companies of specific events that might be important to shareholders or to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) we have been able to identify that address as an additional address traceable to MicroStrategy.

The document mentions :

MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, increased its bitcoin holdings by 2,500 bitcoins,
from approximately 130,000 bitcoins as of October 31, 2022, to approximately 132,500 bitcoins as of December 27, 2022.

Source : https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/financial-document-archive/form-8-k-12-28-2022.pdf

Thus, we know that MicroStrategy, as of December 27, 2022, holds about 132,500 Bitcoins.

If, in addition to the addresses we have already identified, we also add up the Bitcoins of the suspect address :

AddressBalance as of December 27, 2022
1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH13,816 Bitcoin
1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd124,348 Bitcoin
1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ0 Bitcoin
1FzWLkAahHooV3kzTgyx6qsswXJ6sCXkSR0 Bitcoin
Total138,164 Bitcoin

We can therefore confirm that the address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is an address traceable to MicroStrategy.

Bitcoin address 1JHceFenZHACSRPD6tE4bfU6yJ83wTG6kH is from MicroStrategy. Onchain analysis

Onchain data embedded with public data has enormous potential for analysis, and this is a classic example.

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MicroStrategy Bitcoin addresses

MicroStrategy and Bitcoin. Microstrategy is one among the leading Nasdaq-listed companies that has abandoned dollar reserves to accumulate Bitcoin. In this post we are going to analyze which addresses are most likely to be attributable to MicroStrategy.

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Onchain data are interpretive, but at the same time offer a huge amount of data, public, analyzable, and helping to identify with relative certainty who holds the private keys to a Bitcoin address.

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Much information that helps identify and confirm addresses comes from official sources, such as the SEC. In one of the latest reports published by MicroStrategy on the SEC website dated September 20, 2022 it mentions :

As of September 19, 2022, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 130,000 bitcoins

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000119312522247427/d355455d8k.htm

We therefore know from official documents, with certainty, that on September 19, 2022, MicroStrategy, owned about 130,000 Bitcoins. We then analyze the chart with addresses above 100k provided on our website:

We have to date 4 addresses greater than 100k, of which 3 are officially traceable to Binance, addresses certainly owned by Binance officiated by multiple sources. That leaves only one with 137,000 as of September 19, 2022, which is 1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd is MicroStrategy?

Address Analysis 1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ

The analysis of address 1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd often pales balances that correspond with what MicroStrategy officiates through SEC reports. Address 1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd is a probable change of address 1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ traceable to the same owner, and has connections to address 1FzWLkAahHooV3kzTgyx6qsswXJ6sCXkSR

A cross-reference of the two addresses brings confirmation, namely, that often the sum of the two addresses almost faithfully met the balances reported to the SEC and by Tweets.

Analyzing the latest SEC memo, we know that MicroStrategy owns “approximately 130,000 Bitcoins, which corresponds to what we see in the balance, or 137.845 BTC

Some analysts criticize and deny the possibility that the address 1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ before and consequently 1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd after is the address traceable to MicroStrategy, and this is explained as “the address 1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ was active before MicroStrategy started buying Bitcoin,” and this is absolutely true, but it can be explained.

CoinBase and the partnership with MicroStrategy
https://www.coinbase.com/blog/coinbase-is-helping-corporate-companies-diversify-with-crypto

MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries, according to multiple sources, use CoinBase both as an OTC (Over the counter buying and selling) service and, more importantly, as a custodial service.

A cross-check of address balances and communications from the SEC, MicroStrategy, and Saylor’s Tweets confirm that addresses 1LQoWist8KkaUXSPKZZHNvEyfrEkPHzSsCd , 1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ and 1FzWLkAahHooV3kzTgyx6qsswXJ6sCXkSR are controlled by CoinBase and are Bitcoins traceable with high probability, almost certainty, to MicroStrategy, and that the Bitcoins in the balance are wholly or close to 100 percent traceable to MicroStrategy.

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Update : following this post, a further follow-up post has been published which you can follow at this link https://btcinoutalert.net/a-new-microstrategy-bitcoin-address-confirmed-by-on-chain-analysis-and-public-data/

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What is Bitcoin address distribution

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After a short guide on What is Netflow, if you haven’t read it we recommend you do since it gives you the minimum logical foundation on what Netflow is and how to interpret it, today we will focus on another valuable metric : the Distribution of Bitcoin addresses.

All present charts you will find on BtcInOutAlert.

Address distribution is one of the useful metrics in near crypto price prediction through onchain analysis. It is easy to read, within anyone’s reach, and it is objective data; all the data is in Blockchain, and even through its history, it is possible for anyone to do an analysis for crypto price prediction.

Our charts are divided as:

Chart
Address non-Zero
Addresses with a balance > 0.01 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 0.1 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 1 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 10 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 100 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 1,000 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 10,000 ₿
Addresses with a balance > 100,000 ₿
List of address distribution charts

As you can see by viewing our Bitcoin address distribution charts, there are clear disparities between increase and decrease based on quantity. Let us analyze the extremes to understand who and how they are increasing and/or decreasing their balances.

Increasing Bitcoin addresses

Right now on the rise we have two absolute metrics, namely the very small ones and the very large ones. Below you can see addresses greater than 0.1 Bitcoin (at current exchange rate $1650) and addresses greater than 10,000 Bitcoin.

Addresses above 10,000, as we have already previously analyzed in the post “Accumulation in progress?” are almost all addresses that can be traced back to exchanges, confiscated or old addresses that have been stopped for many years, so even if they are increasing they cannot be considered accumulations, far from it, they are often Bitcoin that enter exchanges to be sold and/or exchanged for other currencies.

Addresses above 0.1 Bitcoin although considered accumulations must be kept in mind that, especially in recent weeks, there has been a massive outflow from centralized exchanges the result of user distrust after the failure of FTX, but we can consider the metric in accumulation.

Decreasing Bitcoin addresses

Now let us analyze the extremes on the side of degrowth :

As can be seen there is a slight decrease in addresses above 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin, a decrease significantly lower than the percentages of over 5 percent of 0.1 Bitcoin addresses.

So the question is, who is increasing and who is decreasing their Bitcoin reserves? The answer is quite clear, small addresses increased exponentially, while large addresses lightened their reserves.

What often escapes notice, however, is the weight that metrics have; bitcoin accumulated by small wallet are by far smaller amounts than those issued by big wallet.

If we also try to do a very rough sum, we will notice that the weight of the two distributions are totally different. A decrease of 1.60% has a much greater weight than the 5% increase in addresses above 0.1 Bitcoin.

This is an important element to understand for proper analysis. Data must be seen and read as a whole, and each metric must be given the correct weight, otherwise the risk is to make errors in analysis.

Conclusions

This post is only meant to pose evidences that will hopefully be useful to you in the future for a better reading of the data. As always, it’s up to you to do the final analysis, and these values are very important data that cannot be missed in an analyst’s data set.

Our role is to provide data, and BtcInOutAlert publishes daily updates of distribution metrics; the update occurs within minutes of the daily close. Support us by sharing our link.


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