Late in the US evening, as night came and asia woke up, a major Bitcoin Outflow from Binance.
A quick analysis showed some correlation between the news, a reopening to China’s cryptocurrency trading (https://www.cdex.cn/), and from the chart showing correlation with price:
Closed analysis? Not exactly. Onchain data is now within everyone’s reach, and similar movements can trigger euphoria and price movements, it has happened many times before . Manipulation is part of the system, and this is what has most likely happened.
Going to analyze the movement we can see that the outflow starts from a Binance address that is well integrated into the Binance ecosystem, i.e., any movement to and from occurred exclusively from and to Binance addresses.
What does not add up, and what makes this most likely an internal Binance movement, is that the outflow did not occur from the classic Hot Wallet, but occurred from a secondary Cold Wallet, emptied, and with the routing of the total amount of Bitcoins to a virgin address, but with a typical trace and repeatedly used by Binance to “mark” its addresses, this for example has happened before during Audits.
We can therefore regard it as an internal movement that has nothing to do with accumulation.
What should give pause for thought is yet another huge internal Binance move, from a known Binance address to a virgin address, in the middle of the European night and late in the U.S. evening with markets closed, with no advance notice of movement.
The obvious attempts at manipulation, even in light of connections and mutual support with opaque onchain services, should make users reflect on which onchain services should be deemed trustworthy, transparent, and which ones lend themselves to power plays and collusion with the sole purpose of misleading users and draining them of their Satoshi.
On December 23, 2022 large Bitcoin movements occurred from the addresses of OKX, one of the largest exchanges. The movements were anticipated by a tweet alert :
Due to wallet maintenance, we will be transferring coins and tokens between our wallet addresses over the next 24 hours. Large transfers will be seen in our wallets.
Address movements are part of an OKX transparency effort to show Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) on its website.
The Proof of Reserves is the second one, and it adds new features. Users can now view the independently the results of on the OKX website through open source tools available on the OKX GitHub profile at the following address:
OKX has published over 20,000 addresses, and it seems they plan to continue to reuse addresses so that anyone can perform a stand-alone, independent audit, plus OKX promises to run reserve tests on a monthly basis.
OKX Inflow Outflow may continue in the coming hours.
Movements are still taking place, so onchain analysis is done with updated data until the post is published. Follow the live data (find the menu at the bottom of the page) to stay updated in real time.
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In the last 48 hours, a significant amount of Bitcoin have flowed out of Binance, large amounts that deserve a closer look.
We can certainly call the outflows “anomalous,” anomalous because the anomalies are multiple.
In our short history (the first BtcInOutAlert data were published in May/June 2021) we have been able to verify several outflows and accumulations, the most important one certainly in July 2021. The accumulations that have occurred to date that have led to lasting rebounds have distinct characteristics:
occur from multiple exchanges
outflows are often few transactions of large amounts (even above 5000 Btc)
occur and continue during the correction (i.e., dutante the descent)
The characteristics of the outflows of the last 48 hours have none of the peculiarities that have occurred in the past, namely:
have occurred exclusively from Binance. In the last 60 hours Bitcoin have outflowed almost exclusively from Binance (we are close to 100%). Other exchanges have not had Outflow, in fact Netflow is often positive (more inflow than outflow)
transactions are very numerous, and of amounts almost all (97%) less than 200 Btc per transaction
occurred days after the end (to date) of the descent/correction, and not during the descent/correction
The type of ouflow should therefore prompt the user to ask questions.
By looking at the Report data, it is possible to view aggregate data, i.e., the numbers displayed are the difference between inflow and outflow of ALL Exchange Spots we track.
The Weekly value starts at midnight Monday. 50,000 Bitcoin have left the exchanges in the past 60 hours. As of 00 UTC Monday (i.e., about 60 hours ago) there were 97,192 Bitcoin in the Binance Withdrawals Wallet (bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h); right now there are 43,373 Bitcoin, for a negative balance of -53,819 Bitcoin.
The totality of outflows present are attributable to Binance, certainly an important anomaly.
Analyzing outgoing transactions from Binance Hot Wallet we see that, again in the last 60 hours, a total of 2040 outgoing transactions occurred , of these 2040 as many as 1970 are outgoing transactions of less than 200 BTC, or almost 97%.
We can therefore say that the totality of outgoing transactions are transactions of less than 200 Bitcoin.
WARNING! 97% of the transactions are less than 200 Bitcoins does not mean that they are individual 200 Bitcoin Outflows, but that the total is 200 Bitcoins, but then each transaction is also distributed to hundreds of different addresses.
As always, we simply pose evidences; the conclusions are up to the user.
A rather anomalous outflow movement from the Binance Hot wallet has occurred in the past few hours. Over 38,000 Bitcoin (About $661 million) have been transferred out of the Binance wallet in just 48 hours. As can be seen on every timeframe, the Outflow is way out of scale.
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An abnormal event in a short period of hours, all the more so at the current price level, especially from one exchange : Binance.
Source : https://btcinoutalert.net/Live-Report/
All Bitcoins are coming out of the Binance Hot Wallet, a single address : bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3h
In recent hours there have been unhappy reports about Binance and its possible failure to cover. We will be following very very closely in the coming hours; we may be at the beginning of something very very important.
Outflow movements are still occurring, so new updates will follow.
If you are immediately looking for the answer to the question in the post, the answer is NO. It is not an outflow and we explain why, but more importantly we explain something more important, which is how it uses CoinBase addresses and how it executes transactions on the Blockchain.
What just happened today, an outflow movement of 47,348 Bitcoin, divided into 4 transactions of 11,837 Bitcoin, is the classic example that can perfectly represent how CoinBase transactions.
The onchain data would show this, which is a mega outflow :
when in fact it is a classic internal movement, i.e. moving from CoinBase addresses to other addresses also owned by CoinBase.
Now, first we will show you a classic Binance move, where all sending and receiving addresses are easily tracked even for the average user, and it will be helpful for us to understand the differences between CoinBase and most other exchanges.
Link Graph: https://explorer.bitquery.io/bitcoin/address/3LYJfcfHPXYJreMsASk2jkn69LWEYKzexb/graph
In the last section of the previous chart, you find represented the movement of over 127,000 Bitcoins that occurred on November 18; as you can see, both the history of previous transactions and the latest movement is clear, readable, each address is easily identifiable and assignable to an entity, in this case Binance. The user, even a user with average analytical skills, can easily identify the funds, know how many there are and where they are, at any time. In addition, previously known addresses are reused; this simplifies the analysts’ job since you already know for sure they are owned by Binance.
We now show you only a part of the latest CoinBase movement, that is, only 1 of 4 transactions of 11,837 for a total of 47,348 occurred on November 23.
From the CoinBase address 12Gjyd3MMR7Dj2KwCxw71wwzZXVp2xy8nK all funds were moved to a virgin address 1D1SwsCBpifHSefJUo4BD8bYMvWRbH9mzz, subsequently divided into 111 addresses, and again distributed and divided into 10 addresses.
Now, this is just one movement of the 4 addresses, you just have to multiply everything by 4 🙂
As is always the case, large amounts of bitcoin on the chain create extreme excitement, euphoria or panic, even more extreme excitement when the movement occurs from one of the addresses owned by larger exchanges: Binance.
Big movements from Binance Wallet
During the early hours of November 18, 2022 , from the address traceable to Binance dedicated to the BTC-B peg 3LYJfcfHPXYJreMsASk2jkn69LWEYKzexb various movements to and from, through multiple addresses all traceable to Binance are reported.
It is important to know up front that all movements are zero-sum, meaning that the same amount of Bitcoin is in Binance wallets both before and after the movements.
The certainty that the wallet is traceable to Binance and dedicated to the BTC-B peg comes directly from the owner of the address according to several sources :
Bitcoin BEP2 (BTCB) is a token on Binance Chain issued by Binance, where the price is pegged to BTC at a rate of 1 BTCB = 1 BTC. BTCB is 100% backed by the same amount of BTC in our public reserve address below.
The main benefit of offering crypto-pegged tokens is that, obviously, this makes available to Binance DEX traders the many coins that have their own blockchains and aren’t native on BNB Chain.
Simply put, Binance stores Bitcoin reserves in a dedicated address, verifiable address to ensure liquidity on its chain.
Bitcoin Binance reserves track liquidity. The more liquidity on the Binance chain, the more Bitcoin reserves are held in reserves.
Will the Bitcoin removed from liquidity be SOLD at market?
This question will not be answered, but you will give yourself an answer, and the whole thing is based on logic. To give you an answer you first need to understand how liquidity works on the Binance chain, and again we quote Binance’s words :
This provides an easy way for anyone to convert from the pegged token back into the native coin on Binance.com. If this buy order is filled, a new order will be placed while an equal amount of funds will be deposited from the reserve address into Binance.com. The sum of the buy order and the funds on the published reserve address will be bigger than the total supply of the pegged token, ensuring there is always 100% backing.
If those Bitcoin were subtracted from the reserves of the Binance BTC-B address this is a consequence of liquidity leaving the Binance chain, not the other way around. If there is less liquidity on the Binance chain less Bitcoin are needed as collateral, not the other way around.
Is this liquidity outflow bullish or bearish?
This Bitcoin liquidity coming out of the BTC-B reserve addresses are neither bearish nor bullish, but reflect what on the Binance chain HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.
The fear instilled by some people is a very sad story!
Is it a real BTC accumulation or is it a rush to withdraw the money ?
November 13, 2022 More than 58,000 Bitcoin have gone out in the past 7 days, one of the weeks with the highest number of bitcoin gone out. Outflows not seen in many months.
Bitcoin Netflow Report – 13/November/2022 09:27 UTC
The 4H rolling graph shows an exponential increase in outflows as soon as the rush to exit FTX began.
Bitcoin Netflow H4 Rolling – 13/November/2022 09:01 UTC
A great help comes to us from Onchain data in its completeness Historically, addresses over 100 and 1K Bitcoin are from large funds and Big investors.
Both have been declining for the last 30 days, and in the last week there has been no increase
Addresses greater than 100 BitcoinAddresses greater than 1k Bitcoin
In opposite, very small portfolios are in vertical increase Use your head, make your own assessments, use our free and independent data.
An alternative netflow service indicated an outflow of 52.360 Bitcoin from Binance. Is this real?
NO, it is a MEGA Fake News. Binance performed an internal movement of 30.000 BTC in cold wallet, remaining 51.841 are in a Change Address, so same owner, so still Binance
BtcInOutAlert regularly reported IN REAL TIME what was happening.TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d
Distribution of addresses greater than 10k Bitcoin
Analysis on addresses over 10k Bitcoin
Are Institutions and Funds Accumulating Bitcoin ?
Is it true what onchain services and people are currently stating, that INSTITUTIONAL and FUNDS are accumulating Bitcoin?
This is a partial analysis, in fact we are only going to deep dive on wallet above 10k BTC (>$200m), since those are the most representative ones for possible accumulation of Funds and Institutionals
NOW we have 101 wallet with balance greater than 10k
Addresses with #BTC balances greater than 10k are 20% of the total circulating. Chart showing distribution of Exchange, Hack & Confiscated, old holders.
Considering wallet with a balance greater than #1k Bitcoin the trend is even declining, so those greater than 10k are key
As can be seen most of the wallet above 10k are now bitcoin in the hands of exchange and only a tiny fraction are Holder Fund-Institutional. Only 4% are effective accumulation of the total above 10k
