All Binance addresses have been tagged with description:
Deposit Wallet
Cold Wallet
Hot Withdrawal Wallet
others of different use (e.g. Pool)
Why is TAG important and how to interpret the information?
Binance has a 3-tier structure (with minor exceptions).
Deposit Wallet : users’ deposit addresses
Hot Withdrawal Wallet : addresses for withdrawals
Cold Wallet : are long-term storage addresses
Tag differentiation allows the user a quick understanding of the movement. Rather than seeing a simple In/Out from today you will see (on Binance, but work is being done on improving all exchanges) the detail of the movement.
In the diagram above we have a simplified view of how Binance’s Bitcoin management works in broad strokes.
Deposit Wallets are the addresses that, trivially, the user displays in his Binance account to make the deposit; when the user/entity deposits more than 200 Bitcoins at that point BtcInOutAlert notifies the inflow. Thereafter, Binance typically moves the inflow to another Binance address, in most cases to the Withdrawals Wallet. In contrast, the opposite reasoning applies to outflows, where Bitcoins are sent from the Withdrawals Wallet to an external address (outflow) not in Binance’s control.
The most important movements, as can be imagined, are those inbound (inflow) to Deposit Wallets, and outbound (outflow) from the withdrawal wallet to external addresses.
All Binance addresses have been Taggated with the aim of improving the service offered and offering a detail to date not available from any alternative service to BtcInOutAlert, with the goal in the coming weeks of expanding the details of the Notification Tags to most addresses.
If you would like to receive real-time notifications and access to premium data, please follow the LINK
Late in the US evening, as night came and asia woke up, a major Bitcoin Outflow from Binance.
A quick analysis showed some correlation between the news, a reopening to China’s cryptocurrency trading (https://www.cdex.cn/), and from the chart showing correlation with price:
Closed analysis? Not exactly. Onchain data is now within everyone’s reach, and similar movements can trigger euphoria and price movements, it has happened many times before . Manipulation is part of the system, and this is what has most likely happened.
Going to analyze the movement we can see that the outflow starts from a Binance address that is well integrated into the Binance ecosystem, i.e., any movement to and from occurred exclusively from and to Binance addresses.
What does not add up, and what makes this most likely an internal Binance movement, is that the outflow did not occur from the classic Hot Wallet, but occurred from a secondary Cold Wallet, emptied, and with the routing of the total amount of Bitcoins to a virgin address, but with a typical trace and repeatedly used by Binance to “mark” its addresses, this for example has happened before during Audits.
We can therefore regard it as an internal movement that has nothing to do with accumulation.
What should give pause for thought is yet another huge internal Binance move, from a known Binance address to a virgin address, in the middle of the European night and late in the U.S. evening with markets closed, with no advance notice of movement.
The obvious attempts at manipulation, even in light of connections and mutual support with opaque onchain services, should make users reflect on which onchain services should be deemed trustworthy, transparent, and which ones lend themselves to power plays and collusion with the sole purpose of misleading users and draining them of their Satoshi.
On December 23, 2022 large Bitcoin movements occurred from the addresses of OKX, one of the largest exchanges. The movements were anticipated by a tweet alert :
Due to wallet maintenance, we will be transferring coins and tokens between our wallet addresses over the next 24 hours. Large transfers will be seen in our wallets.
Address movements are part of an OKX transparency effort to show Proof-of-Reserves (PoR) on its website.
The Proof of Reserves is the second one, and it adds new features. Users can now view the independently the results of on the OKX website through open source tools available on the OKX GitHub profile at the following address:
OKX has published over 20,000 addresses, and it seems they plan to continue to reuse addresses so that anyone can perform a stand-alone, independent audit, plus OKX promises to run reserve tests on a monthly basis.
OKX Inflow Outflow may continue in the coming hours.
Onchain data are becoming increasingly important in the Bitcoin world, this is because they are useful in interpreting and often anticipating Bitcoin price movements. We have noticed how there is an openness even from major Exchanges in publishing onchain data (Kraken for example publishes excellent analysis, find the link at the bottom of the page of their analysis).
There are many useful onchain indicators, but today we will focus on Netflow, which is the most natural movement of bitcoin to exchanges, and bitcoin in exchanges are the ones that generate the price for an ordinary person.
What is Netflow
Netflow is an onchain analysis tool that compares price trends with the trend of Bitcoin volumes inflow and outflow of exchanges to study the likelihood of a trend reversal.
1 year of Netflow. Source : BtcInOutAlert.net
Its purpose is also to help traders understand whether a Bitcoin is currently accumulating or distributing. Although it was originally designed for use on Bitcoin, market logic has meant that it finds wide applications in the world of shitcoins, which we will not cover because they are totally irrelevant (the shitcoins)
Thus, Bitcoin accumulation and distribution allows you to interpret the trend and can be used both when a trend is up, to determine the likelihood that it will advance, and when a trend has already clearly manifested itself and you are trying to figure out whether a reversal is imminent or not.
Netflow as an indicator of accumulation and distribution
Netflow is a tool for measuring in Bitcoin the volume in and out of the Exchange, which assesses the cumulative inflow and outflow of Bitcoin from a given Exchange; simply put, it measures the price and volume of Bitcoin to determine whether it is accumulating or distributing.
The indicator also provides information about the strength of a trend. For example, when the price of the asset is rising, but the Netflow indicator is negative this may indicate that the volume of accumulation, and therefore buying, is not strong enough to support the rising price. These circumstances could mean that a price decline is imminent in the short term.
How to use Netflow as an indicator of accumulation and distribution
If the market price is in an upward trend, the indicator will be rising, reflecting buying pressure, while in a downward trend, the indicator will be falling, reflecting selling pressure; if this is not the case, we are in a divergence.
One of the great advantages of this indicator is precisely the issue of divergence. In fact, if the market price is in one direction and the indicator is in the opposite direction, it is usually a very interesting warning that the market may reverse its trend.
Thus, the most reliable signals provided by Netflow, accumulation or distribution, are divergences.
The buy signal will appear with a positive divergence, that is, when the market price is falling but the Netflow is rising. In this case, the analyst should be alert because there is a good chance that the price will soon turn upward.
A bearish divergence sell signal would occur when the market price is rising but the Netflow is falling. In this case, the technical analyst should be alert because there is a good chance that the price will soon turn downward.
Strategy with the indicators of accumulation and distribution
As you now know, the Netflow therefore creates both bullish and bearish signals. These signals are based on divergence and its confirmation.
Although the use of Netflow alone is feasible, it is more advantageous to add other indicators such as Data Volume, Address Distribution, Dormant Address Activity, Long Term and Short Term Holder. They provide additional data and useful ranges to be used to highlight extreme conditions for which Netflow was not designed, although they do so differently.
Conclusions
Netflow is an extremely useful onchain indicator for measuring the cumulative capital flow for a financial asset such as a currency pair (BTC/USD). It is based on both price and volume and can be used as a tool to monitor trend.
Divergences between this indicator and the asset price are usually fairly reliable signals of trend change; they are data that the Blockchain provides us with, public, which employed in conjunction with additional analysis tools can confirm the signals.
Is it a real BTC accumulation or is it a rush to withdraw the money ?
November 13, 2022 More than 58,000 Bitcoin have gone out in the past 7 days, one of the weeks with the highest number of bitcoin gone out. Outflows not seen in many months.
Bitcoin Netflow Report – 13/November/2022 09:27 UTC
The 4H rolling graph shows an exponential increase in outflows as soon as the rush to exit FTX began.
Bitcoin Netflow H4 Rolling – 13/November/2022 09:01 UTC
A great help comes to us from Onchain data in its completeness Historically, addresses over 100 and 1K Bitcoin are from large funds and Big investors.
Both have been declining for the last 30 days, and in the last week there has been no increase
Addresses greater than 100 BitcoinAddresses greater than 1k Bitcoin
In opposite, very small portfolios are in vertical increase Use your head, make your own assessments, use our free and independent data.
An alternative netflow service indicated an outflow of 52.360 Bitcoin from Binance. Is this real?
NO, it is a MEGA Fake News. Binance performed an internal movement of 30.000 BTC in cold wallet, remaining 51.841 are in a Change Address, so same owner, so still Binance
BtcInOutAlert regularly reported IN REAL TIME what was happening.TX : a98b4b1eb25166cda54abb9e90f7f2b57dae402ab6f995a27a5e3763ab625e5d
Distribution of addresses greater than 10k Bitcoin
Analysis on addresses over 10k Bitcoin
Are Institutions and Funds Accumulating Bitcoin ?
Is it true what onchain services and people are currently stating, that INSTITUTIONAL and FUNDS are accumulating Bitcoin?
This is a partial analysis, in fact we are only going to deep dive on wallet above 10k BTC (>$200m), since those are the most representative ones for possible accumulation of Funds and Institutionals
NOW we have 101 wallet with balance greater than 10k
Addresses with #BTC balances greater than 10k are 20% of the total circulating. Chart showing distribution of Exchange, Hack & Confiscated, old holders.
Considering wallet with a balance greater than #1k Bitcoin the trend is even declining, so those greater than 10k are key
As can be seen most of the wallet above 10k are now bitcoin in the hands of exchange and only a tiny fraction are Holder Fund-Institutional. Only 4% are effective accumulation of the total above 10k
As always, the answers rely in the blockchain. Each UTXO corresponds to a block, and each block corresponds to a date. Each date corresponds then to a precise value of Bitcoin.
We have removed all the Exchange and custodial addresses. We have aggregated the values in ranges of $500. This to reduce the size of the chart and give a more representative idea of the purchase ranges.
Last 6 months
The first figure evaluates the last 6 months of UTXO, so from 23/November/2021 when Bitcoin was quoted around $58,000
The result is that over 95% of those who have accumulated in the last 6 months are at a loss, at an average accumulation value of $42,293
Last year
It doesn’t fare better with last year’s UTXO datasets On 22/May/2021 Bitcoin was quoted as $38,150 Holders from the past 365 days have an average accumulation price of $44,048, higher than holders from the past 6 months
Just over 91% of the dataset is at a loss.
Last 2 years
Utxo dataset from 22/May/2020. Bitcoin was quoted at $9,170
The result is that the holders of the last two years, those who have not sold, have an average accumulation price of around $41,001
80.46% is currently at a loss (at today’s price of around $ 30,000)
The average purchasing being at 40k, means therefore that those who bought in the last two years, either sold their bags already making profit, either are holding despite current loss.
